Submitted Photo Provided by the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The national weather service has released their first look ahead at the upcoming 2023-24 winter season and diagnose the expected El Nino conditions.

El Nino is the name for band of warm ocean water that develops in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America that moves across the continent. The NWS’s update from Aug. 31 indicates that El Nino conditions are ongoing with a greater than 95% chance of it lasting through the winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

The NWS projects there is a 65% chance that it becomes a strong El Nino event but is unlikely to be historically so. According to the National Weather Service, El Nino events in North Dakota are typically on the warmer and drier side during the winter, with a gradual transition from the autumn season. The last three autumns favored La Nina conditions, which typically favor a sharp drop into colder temperatures.

Due to the ongoing El Nino, this winter is favored to have above average temperatures, but will still have cold periods. Normal precipitation will likely take a dip but will be offset by any significant increase to the season snowfall total.